KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

86%

75%

70%

64%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.0¢Risks 75.95u

ICONNO 24.0¢Risks 24.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.05u · ICON −24.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	47.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	21.1%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	9.0%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	3.0%	3.8%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	71.4%	4.2%	11.5%	—	40.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	44.2%	88.0%	42.7%	—	51.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	65.6%	68.4%	52.3%	—	71.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	45.2%	75.8%	70.5%	—	67.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	48.3%	70.7%	38.5%	—	59.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	1.7%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	77.9%	95.9%	60.4%	77.2%	—	57.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.5%	53.6%	77.1%	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	89.4%	67.8%	50.9%	77.7%	—	68.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	96.4%	65.7%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	98.1%	84.1%	89.3%	—	93.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	94.8%	89.5%	—	—	97.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	99.4%	90.6%	97.8%	0.0%	98.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	99.5%	98.1%	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	98.0%	99.8%	99.4%	—	99.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	100.0%	99.9%	2.6%	—	99.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.9%	100.0%	99.8%	0.0%	99.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.8%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.2%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	67.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	67.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	64.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	74%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	65.7°F	8.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	63.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗