KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

95%

95%

92%

65%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.7¢Risks 80.65u

EPSNO 19.4¢Risks 19.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.35u · EPS −19.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:41+00:00	64.9%	52.0%	38.5%	64.8%	37.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	64.9%	52.0%	38.5%	64.8%	37.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	64.9%	52.0%	40.4%	64.8%	37.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	64.9%	52.0%	40.4%	64.8%	37.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	64.9%	52.0%	40.4%	64.8%	37.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	64.9%	52.0%	40.4%	64.8%	37.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	74.0%	52.0%	40.4%	32.6%	40.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	74.0%	52.0%	40.4%	32.6%	40.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	74.0%	52.0%	40.4%	32.6%	40.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	74.0%	52.0%	40.4%	32.6%	40.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	74.0%	52.0%	52.9%	32.6%	40.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	74.1%	52.0%	52.9%	32.6%	40.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	74.1%	52.0%	52.9%	32.6%	40.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	61.1%	52.0%	52.9%	32.6%	40.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	61.1%	52.0%	52.9%	32.6%	40.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	61.1%	52.0%	52.9%	32.6%	40.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:44+00:00	61.1%	52.0%	52.9%	32.6%	40.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:17+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	93.5%	89.1%	90.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	93.5%	89.1%	90.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	95.2%	89.1%	90.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	95.2%	89.1%	90.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	95.2%	89.1%	90.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	95.2%	89.1%	90.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	95.2%	91.7%	94.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	95.2%	91.7%	94.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	95.2%	91.7%	94.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	95.2%	91.7%	94.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	96.7%	91.7%	94.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	96.7%	91.7%	94.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	96.7%	91.7%	94.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	94.9%	64.6%	96.7%	91.7%	94.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	95.1%	64.6%	96.7%	91.7%	94.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	95.1%	64.6%	96.7%	91.7%	94.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	95.1%	64.6%	96.7%	91.7%	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	71.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	72.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	95%	71.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	71.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	68.8°F	8.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗