KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

95%

95%

92%

65%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.7¢Risks 80.65u

EPSNO 19.4¢Risks 19.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.35u · EPS −19.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	7.6%	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	2.3%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	0.5%	0.7%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	44.4%	0.8%	2.9%	—	17.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	18.9%	67.0%	17.9%	—	24.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	35.8%	38.7%	23.9%	—	41.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	17.9%	46.0%	39.7%	—	36.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	54.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	18.9%	38.5%	12.9%	—	27.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	0.1%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	80.4%	26.9%	44.8%	—	24.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	20.9%	43.7%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	32.2%	18.4%	43.6%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	80.4%	29.2%	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	86.4%	51.0%	60.6%	—	69.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	82.3%	73.5%	59.9%	—	—	83.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	92.9%	61.2%	83.7%	0.0%	89.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	93.2%	84.4%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	83.1%	96.0%	92.3%	—	90.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	99.1%	98.2%	0.1%	—	92.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	96.7%	98.7%	95.8%	0.0%	93.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	88.6%	97.3%	99.1%	97.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	98.7%	99.5%	97.4%	94.5%	98.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	97.8%	99.2%	98.5%	—	97.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	85.9%	99.8%	98.6%	96.3%	97.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	99.4%	99.9%	99.1%	—	98.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	99.9%	99.9%	99.1%	98.2%	99.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	100.0%	99.5%	—	99.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	71.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	72.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	95%	71.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	71.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	68.8°F	8.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗