KPDX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

55%

51%

49%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.0¢Risks 33.00u

ICONNO 67.0¢Risks 67.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.00u · ICON −67.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	8.5%	0.0%	0.1%	—	1.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.5%	19.9%	1.4%	—	2.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	4.4%	5.2%	2.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.0%	6.7%	4.9%	—	4.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	0.9%	3.9%	0.5%	—	2.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.0%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	24.8%	1.6%	4.7%	—	1.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	0.9%	4.1%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	1.9%	0.6%	3.8%	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	21.0%	1.4%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	27.1%	4.6%	7.5%	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	13.0%	6.6%	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	36.9%	6.4%	20.4%	0.0%	28.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	35.5%	19.8%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	16.9%	43.5%	31.1%	—	26.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	64.3%	54.5%	0.0%	—	28.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	41.9%	57.0%	37.4%	0.0%	28.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	42.8%	59.5%	41.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	51.2%	65.8%	40.1%	27.6%	45.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	39.8%	55.1%	46.1%	—	36.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	10.1%	69.3%	43.3%	28.4%	31.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	52.8%	72.4%	47.2%	—	36.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	75.5%	73.2%	42.8%	33.1%	44.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	76.4%	45.5%	—	41.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	73.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	73.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	72.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	72.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	8%	67.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗