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KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
90%
WN2
75%
HRES
74%
EPS
67%
ICON
30%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 59.9¢Risks 59.85u
VS
ICONNO 40.1¢Risks 40.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.15u · ICON −40.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 90.0% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.0% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.8% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00ICON: 29.7% · 2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:0010-14 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

One recorded snapshot. Additional runs will extend this chart.

2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:34:42+00:0090.0%67.0%74.8%74.1%29.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single90%67.7°F5.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 275%64.1°F5.4°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
IFS HRES74%64.6°F6.3°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble67%63.5°F6.8°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
National Blend54%61.0°F5.0°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON30%55.2°F9.9°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 61°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗