KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

75%

74%

67%

30%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 59.9¢Risks 59.85u

ICONNO 40.1¢Risks 40.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.15u · ICON −40.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	12.0%	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	3.9%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	4.8%	94.0%	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	91.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	92.6%	79.6%	6.3%	—	90.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	76.3%	69.0%	92.1%	—	86.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	87.8%	74.2%	53.8%	—	84.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	97.9%	87.7%	94.1%	—	90.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	93.9%	70.0%	95.7%	—	93.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	33.4%	94.6%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	99.8%	99.0%	94.1%	—	99.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	99.2%	99.4%	—	—	99.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	99.8%	99.5%	97.4%	—	99.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	99.8%	99.6%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.9%	99.8%	98.3%	—	99.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	98.7%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	100.0%	99.7%	99.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	29.6%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	99.2%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	99.9%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	100.0%	99.7%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	67.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	64.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	64.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	63.5°F	6.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	61.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	55.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 61°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗