KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

84%

82%

80%

65%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 76.6¢Risks 76.60u

EPSNO 23.4¢Risks 23.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.40u · EPS −23.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	86.5%	65.1%	69.9%	68.8%	26.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	86.5%	65.1%	69.9%	68.8%	26.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	86.5%	65.1%	69.9%	68.8%	26.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	87.6%	65.1%	69.9%	68.8%	26.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	87.6%	65.1%	69.8%	68.8%	26.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	87.6%	65.0%	69.8%	68.8%	26.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	87.6%	65.0%	69.8%	68.8%	26.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	87.6%	65.0%	69.8%	68.8%	26.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	87.6%	65.0%	67.7%	68.8%	26.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	87.6%	65.0%	67.7%	68.8%	26.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	87.6%	65.0%	67.7%	68.8%	26.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	90.0%	65.0%	67.7%	84.4%	88.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	90.0%	65.0%	67.7%	84.4%	88.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	90.0%	65.0%	67.7%	84.4%	88.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	90.0%	65.0%	67.7%	84.4%	88.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	90.0%	65.0%	67.7%	84.4%	88.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	90.0%	65.0%	82.1%	84.4%	88.2%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	90.0%	65.0%	82.1%	84.4%	88.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	90.0%	65.0%	82.1%	84.4%	88.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	80.3%	65.0%	82.1%	84.4%	88.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	80.3%	65.0%	82.1%	84.4%	88.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	80.3%	65.0%	82.1%	84.4%	88.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	88%	73.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	67.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	66.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	66.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	65.4°F	10.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	62.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗