KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

84%

82%

80%

65%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 76.6¢Risks 76.60u

EPSNO 23.4¢Risks 23.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.40u · EPS −23.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	9.3%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	2.7%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	3.4%	91.8%	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	89.8%	74.3%	4.4%	—	87.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.7%	70.3%	62.3%	89.0%	—	81.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	83.5%	67.7%	46.2%	—	78.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	96.7%	83.2%	91.3%	—	86.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	91.0%	62.3%	93.4%	—	90.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	26.0%	91.8%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	99.6%	98.2%	91.0%	—	98.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	98.5%	98.9%	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	99.6%	99.0%	95.7%	—	99.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	99.6%	99.1%	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	99.8%	99.5%	97.0%	—	99.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	99.9%	99.8%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	99.9%	99.3%	98.0%	—	99.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	99.9%	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	100.0%	99.9%	99.1%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	99.9%	100.0%	20.6%	—	99.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.9%	100.0%	98.4%	0.0%	99.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.9%	100.0%	98.7%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.3%	99.8%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	100.0%	99.3%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	88%	73.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	67.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	66.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	66.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	65.4°F	10.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	62.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗