KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

74%

70%

67%

65%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.0¢Risks 36.50u

EPSNO 27.0¢Risks 13.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.50u · EPS −13.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:38+00:00	69.1%	57.5%	69.8%	75.6%	83.8%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	69.1%	57.5%	69.8%	75.6%	83.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	69.1%	57.5%	61.8%	75.6%	83.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	69.1%	57.5%	61.8%	75.6%	83.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	69.1%	57.5%	61.8%	75.6%	83.8%
2026-10-15T07:50:30+00:00	83.3%	57.5%	61.8%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	83.3%	57.5%	61.8%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	83.3%	57.5%	61.8%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	83.3%	57.5%	61.8%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:46+00:00	83.3%	57.5%	66.6%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:40+00:00	83.3%	57.5%	66.6%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	83.3%	65.2%	66.6%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:38+00:00	83.3%	65.2%	66.6%	70.3%	73.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	80.8%	65.2%	66.6%	70.2%	73.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	80.8%	65.2%	66.6%	70.2%	73.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	68.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	74%	68.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	70%	67.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	65.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	66.8°F	8.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗