KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

74%

70%

67%

65%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.0¢Risks 36.50u

EPSNO 27.0¢Risks 13.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.50u · EPS −13.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	5.3%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	1.2%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	1.5%	85.3%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	82.0%	61.8%	2.0%	—	78.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	56.6%	47.8%	80.6%	—	70.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	72.4%	53.0%	31.6%	—	66.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	92.5%	71.2%	83.2%	—	75.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	82.2%	45.8%	86.2%	—	81.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.6%	14.2%	83.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	98.7%	95.0%	81.6%	—	96.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	95.7%	96.8%	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	87.6%	98.5%	97.0%	89.4%	—	97.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	98.5%	97.1%	—	—	98.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	99.2%	98.1%	91.8%	—	98.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	93.0%	99.6%	99.2%	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	99.6%	97.5%	93.9%	—	99.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	99.4%	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	99.8%	99.6%	96.5%	—	99.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	99.5%	99.7%	8.3%	—	99.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	99.4%	99.8%	93.9%	0.0%	99.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	99.4%	99.6%	94.8%	—	99.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	100.0%	99.9%	96.5%	98.7%	99.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	99.9%	96.5%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	68.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	74%	68.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	70%	67.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	65.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	66.8°F	8.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗