KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

83%

76%

70%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 82.5¢Risks 82.50u

HRESNO 17.5¢Risks 17.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +17.50u · HRES −17.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:41+00:00	55.2%	47.6%	33.4%	47.0%	52.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:16+00:00	55.2%	47.6%	33.4%	47.0%	52.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	55.2%	47.6%	42.4%	47.0%	52.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	55.2%	47.6%	42.4%	47.0%	52.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	55.2%	47.6%	42.4%	47.0%	52.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	55.2%	47.6%	42.4%	47.0%	52.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	67.2%	47.6%	42.4%	68.6%	64.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	67.2%	47.6%	42.4%	68.6%	64.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	67.2%	47.6%	42.4%	68.6%	64.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	67.2%	47.6%	42.4%	68.6%	64.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	67.2%	47.6%	47.4%	68.6%	64.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	67.2%	47.6%	47.4%	68.6%	64.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	67.2%	47.6%	47.4%	68.6%	64.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	66.5%	47.6%	47.4%	68.6%	64.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	66.5%	47.6%	47.4%	68.6%	64.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	66.5%	47.6%	47.4%	68.6%	64.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:44+00:00	66.5%	47.6%	47.4%	68.6%	64.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:34+00:00	72.7%	57.3%	68.7%	72.8%	69.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	72.7%	57.3%	79.6%	72.8%	69.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	72.7%	57.3%	79.6%	72.8%	69.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	72.7%	57.3%	79.6%	72.8%	69.7%
2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00	84.8%	57.3%	79.6%	70.5%	94.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00	84.8%	57.3%	79.6%	70.5%	94.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	84.8%	57.3%	79.6%	70.5%	94.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	84.8%	57.3%	79.6%	70.5%	94.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	84.8%	57.3%	79.6%	70.5%	94.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	84.8%	76.4%	90.2%	70.5%	94.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	84.8%	76.4%	90.2%	70.5%	94.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	84.8%	76.4%	90.2%	70.5%	94.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	82.6%	76.4%	90.2%	70.5%	94.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	82.6%	75.9%	90.1%	70.5%	94.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	94%	75.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	72.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	71.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	72.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	70.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗