KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

83%

76%

70%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 82.5¢Risks 82.50u

HRESNO 17.5¢Risks 17.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +17.50u · HRES −17.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	1.4%	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	0.2%	64.5%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	58.4%	34.3%	0.3%	—	52.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	28.5%	21.5%	55.1%	—	42.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	43.2%	24.5%	10.7%	—	36.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	73.9%	40.5%	56.4%	—	45.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	53.3%	17.3%	59.9%	—	52.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	2.7%	54.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	91.0%	77.9%	50.9%	—	82.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	79.1%	82.8%	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	89.4%	82.8%	62.7%	—	83.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	88.7%	82.9%	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	92.5%	86.4%	66.1%	—	88.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	95.3%	92.0%	—	—	90.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	94.5%	82.4%	69.7%	—	90.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	92.8%	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	96.2%	94.4%	76.2%	—	95.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	92.9%	95.0%	0.6%	—	90.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	91.0%	94.9%	64.8%	0.0%	91.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	90.3%	93.0%	66.4%	—	93.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	98.0%	96.5%	71.3%	83.4%	96.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	—	95.4%	69.8%	—	96.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	94%	75.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	72.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	71.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	72.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	70.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗