KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

86%

82%

81%

72%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 80.9¢Risks 40.45u

EPSNO 19.1¢Risks 9.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +9.55u · EPS −9.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:17+00:00	76.4%	72.4%	84.6%	63.3%	91.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	76.4%	72.4%	84.6%	63.3%	91.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	76.4%	72.4%	79.7%	63.3%	91.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	76.4%	72.4%	79.7%	63.3%	91.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	76.4%	72.4%	79.7%	63.3%	91.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	76.4%	72.4%	79.7%	63.3%	91.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	77.1%	72.4%	79.7%	81.1%	89.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	77.1%	72.4%	79.7%	81.1%	89.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	77.1%	72.4%	79.7%	81.1%	89.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	77.1%	72.4%	79.7%	81.1%	89.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	77.1%	72.4%	86.4%	81.1%	89.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	77.1%	72.4%	86.4%	81.1%	89.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	77.1%	72.4%	86.4%	81.1%	89.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	77.1%	72.4%	86.4%	81.1%	89.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	82.0%	72.4%	86.4%	81.1%	89.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	82.0%	72.4%	86.4%	81.1%	89.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	82.0%	72.4%	86.4%	81.1%	89.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	89%	74.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	72.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	72.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	72.5°F	6.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗