KPDX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

86%

82%

81%

72%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 80.9¢Risks 40.45u

EPSNO 19.1¢Risks 9.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +9.55u · EPS −9.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.9%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	0.1%	58.1%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	51.4%	28.1%	0.2%	—	45.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	22.6%	16.5%	47.8%	—	35.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	35.8%	18.9%	7.6%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	67.0%	33.0%	48.4%	—	37.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	45.0%	12.5%	51.7%	—	44.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	1.6%	45.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	86.9%	70.9%	42.2%	—	75.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	72.1%	76.5%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	84.5%	76.3%	53.7%	—	77.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	83.5%	76.2%	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	88.4%	80.3%	56.8%	—	82.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	92.4%	87.6%	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	91.0%	74.9%	60.2%	—	85.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	88.4%	81.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	67.9%	93.4%	90.6%	66.9%	—	91.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	88.2%	91.3%	0.3%	—	85.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	85.3%	91.0%	53.5%	0.0%	86.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	84.0%	88.0%	54.8%	—	88.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	96.0%	93.3%	59.9%	74.4%	93.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	91.3%	57.7%	—	93.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	89%	74.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	72.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	81%	72.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	72.5°F	6.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗