KPDX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

76%

71%

48%

46%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 72.8¢Risks 72.75u

ICONNO 27.2¢Risks 27.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +27.25u · ICON −27.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:30+00:00	63.9%	73.7%	38.4%	48.7%	38.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	63.9%	73.7%	38.4%	48.7%	38.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	63.9%	73.7%	38.4%	48.7%	38.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	63.9%	73.7%	38.4%	48.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	31.5%	86.8%	46.6%	41.0%	31.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	31.5%	86.9%	46.6%	41.0%	31.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	31.5%	86.9%	46.6%	41.0%	31.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	31.5%	86.9%	38.2%	41.0%	31.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	31.5%	86.9%	38.2%	41.0%	31.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	31.5%	86.9%	38.2%	41.0%	31.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	24.1%	86.9%	38.2%	41.0%	63.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	24.1%	86.9%	38.2%	41.0%	63.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	24.1%	86.9%	38.2%	41.0%	63.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	24.1%	86.9%	38.2%	41.0%	63.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	24.1%	86.9%	38.2%	31.4%	63.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	24.1%	86.9%	34.2%	31.4%	63.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	24.1%	86.9%	34.2%	31.4%	63.2%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	24.1%	86.9%	34.2%	31.4%	63.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	28.3%	86.9%	34.2%	31.4%	63.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	28.3%	86.9%	34.2%	31.4%	63.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	28.3%	86.9%	34.2%	31.4%	63.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	28.3%	86.9%	34.2%	31.4%	63.2%
2026-10-17T04:42:34+00:00	28.3%	86.9%	34.2%	31.4%	63.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	28.3%	86.9%	50.9%	31.4%	63.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	28.3%	86.9%	50.9%	31.4%	63.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	28.3%	86.9%	50.9%	31.4%	63.2%
2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00	80.1%	86.9%	50.9%	77.7%	54.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00	80.1%	86.9%	50.9%	77.7%	54.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	80.1%	86.9%	50.9%	77.7%	54.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	80.1%	86.9%	50.9%	77.7%	54.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	80.1%	86.9%	50.9%	77.7%	54.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	80.1%	96.6%	68.7%	77.7%	54.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	80.1%	96.6%	68.7%	77.7%	54.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	80.1%	96.6%	68.7%	77.7%	54.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	60.3%	96.6%	68.7%	77.7%	54.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	60.4%	96.6%	68.7%	77.6%	54.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:19+00:00	60.4%	96.9%	68.7%	77.6%	54.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	60.4%	96.9%	68.7%	77.6%	54.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	60.4%	96.9%	54.8%	77.6%	54.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	60.4%	96.9%	54.8%	77.6%	54.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	60.4%	96.9%	54.8%	77.6%	54.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	60.4%	96.9%	54.8%	77.6%	54.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	63.4%	96.9%	54.8%	30.2%	86.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	63.4%	96.9%	54.8%	30.2%	86.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	63.4%	96.9%	54.8%	30.2%	86.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	63.4%	96.9%	54.8%	30.2%	86.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	63.4%	97.1%	49.0%	30.2%	86.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	63.4%	97.1%	49.0%	30.2%	86.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	63.4%	97.1%	49.0%	30.2%	86.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	63.4%	97.1%	49.0%	30.2%	86.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	68.6%	97.1%	49.0%	30.2%	86.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	68.6%	97.1%	49.0%	30.2%	86.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	68.6%	97.1%	49.0%	30.2%	86.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	68.1%	99.5%	75.3%	74.2%	44.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	68.1%	99.5%	75.3%	74.2%	44.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	68.1%	99.5%	75.3%	74.2%	44.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	68.1%	99.5%	74.4%	74.2%	44.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	68.1%	99.5%	74.4%	74.2%	44.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	68.1%	99.5%	74.4%	74.2%	44.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	54.7%	99.5%	74.4%	76.3%	46.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	54.7%	99.5%	74.4%	76.3%	46.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	54.7%	99.5%	74.4%	76.3%	46.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	54.7%	99.5%	74.4%	76.3%	46.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	54.7%	99.5%	74.4%	76.3%	46.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	54.7%	99.5%	47.6%	76.3%	46.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:09+00:00	54.7%	99.5%	47.6%	76.3%	46.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	54.7%	99.5%	47.6%	76.3%	46.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	71.3%	99.5%	47.6%	76.3%	46.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	71.3%	99.5%	47.6%	76.3%	46.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	71.3%	99.5%	47.6%	76.3%	46.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	64.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	63.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	62.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	61.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	46%	61.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗