KPDX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

76%

71%

48%

46%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 72.8¢Risks 72.75u

ICONNO 27.2¢Risks 27.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +27.25u · ICON −27.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	58.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	68.2%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	62.2%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	10.2%	47.3%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	53.5%	36.9%	11.5%	—	46.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	9.3%	52.9%	74.6%	—	47.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	40.2%	2.5%	66.3%	—	38.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	34.5%	79.4%	31.6%	—	69.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	74.4%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	79.9%	84.3%	65.5%	—	46.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	14.7%	69.7%	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	36.3%	75.9%	81.6%	—	43.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	63.2%	76.5%	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	53.7%	65.3%	52.8%	—	32.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	47.2%	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	37.6%	84.1%	47.1%	—	54.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	11.4%	95.8%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	38.8%	86.1%	55.1%	—	51.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	51.1%	85.0%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	88.6%	86.9%	52.2%	55.5%	57.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	85.2%	12.9%	—	52.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	64.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	63.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	62.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	61.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	46%	61.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗