KPDX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

52%

44%

27%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

WN2NO 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.30u · WN2 −47.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	43.7%	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	36.6%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	2.6%	22.8%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	26.9%	14.9%	2.9%	—	21.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	2.0%	25.4%	47.1%	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	15.5%	0.3%	36.5%	—	14.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	11.5%	50.8%	10.0%	—	38.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	43.5%	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	50.0%	56.6%	33.0%	—	17.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	2.8%	36.6%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	10.9%	43.0%	50.9%	—	14.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	28.7%	42.9%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	20.3%	29.7%	19.6%	—	8.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	15.4%	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	9.8%	51.0%	14.7%	—	19.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	1.4%	76.6%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	9.4%	52.1%	18.3%	—	15.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	15.0%	48.9%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	54.4%	51.1%	14.9%	16.9%	18.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	46.6%	1.2%	—	14.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	74.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	52%	65.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	64.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	63.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	61.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗