KPDX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

68%

67%

67%

51%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.1¢Risks 70.10u

WN2NO 29.9¢Risks 29.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.90u · WN2 −29.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:34+00:00	49.3%	82.1%	51.6%	39.0%	73.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	49.3%	82.1%	57.0%	39.0%	73.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	49.3%	82.1%	57.0%	39.0%	73.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	49.3%	82.1%	57.0%	39.0%	73.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00	60.9%	82.1%	57.0%	41.6%	69.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00	60.9%	82.1%	57.0%	41.6%	69.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	60.9%	82.1%	57.0%	41.6%	69.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	60.9%	82.1%	57.0%	41.6%	69.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	60.9%	82.1%	57.0%	41.6%	69.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	60.9%	86.0%	44.9%	41.6%	69.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	60.9%	86.0%	44.9%	41.6%	69.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	60.9%	86.0%	44.9%	41.6%	69.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	48.5%	86.0%	44.9%	41.7%	69.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	48.5%	85.8%	44.9%	41.6%	69.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:19+00:00	48.5%	86.3%	44.9%	41.6%	69.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	48.5%	86.3%	44.9%	41.6%	69.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	48.5%	86.3%	51.7%	41.6%	69.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	48.5%	86.3%	51.7%	41.6%	69.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	48.5%	86.3%	51.7%	41.6%	69.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	48.5%	86.3%	51.7%	41.6%	69.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	52.2%	86.3%	51.7%	35.2%	75.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	52.2%	86.3%	51.7%	35.2%	75.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	52.2%	86.3%	51.7%	35.2%	75.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	52.2%	86.3%	51.7%	35.2%	75.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	52.2%	86.3%	41.5%	35.2%	75.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	52.2%	86.3%	41.5%	35.2%	75.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	52.2%	86.3%	41.5%	35.2%	75.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	52.2%	86.3%	41.5%	35.2%	75.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	60.9%	86.3%	41.5%	35.2%	75.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	60.9%	86.3%	41.5%	35.2%	75.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	60.9%	86.3%	41.5%	35.2%	75.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	72.2%	89.1%	56.4%	64.8%	78.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	72.2%	89.1%	56.4%	64.8%	78.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	72.2%	89.1%	56.4%	64.8%	78.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	72.2%	89.1%	55.3%	64.8%	78.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	72.2%	89.1%	55.3%	64.8%	78.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	72.2%	89.1%	55.3%	64.8%	78.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	66.1%	89.1%	55.3%	67.7%	66.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	66.1%	89.1%	55.3%	67.7%	66.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	66.1%	89.1%	55.3%	67.7%	66.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	66.1%	89.1%	55.3%	67.7%	66.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	66.1%	89.1%	55.3%	67.7%	66.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	66.1%	89.1%	51.1%	67.7%	66.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:09+00:00	66.1%	89.1%	51.1%	67.7%	66.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	66.1%	89.1%	51.1%	67.7%	66.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	66.9%	89.1%	51.1%	67.7%	66.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	66.9%	89.1%	51.1%	67.7%	66.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	66.9%	89.1%	51.1%	67.7%	66.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	65.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	61.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	61.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	67%	61.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	59.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗