KPDX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

68%

67%

67%

51%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.1¢Risks 70.10u

WN2NO 29.9¢Risks 29.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.90u · WN2 −29.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	37.3%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	8.8%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	5.9%	2.9%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	60.4%	42.3%	10.2%	—	35.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	49.3%	35.7%	27.2%	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	59.8%	62.7%	31.6%	—	32.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	63.0%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	60.3%	61.0%	46.0%	—	28.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	36.4%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	72.1%	58.3%	41.7%	—	27.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	4.1%	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	67.8%	69.3%	58.7%	—	38.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	60.7%	64.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	53.7%	68.6%	60.0%	—	38.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	61.2%	69.1%	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	63.4%	66.1%	51.9%	31.3%	35.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	65.6%	—	—	29.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	65.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	61.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	61.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	67%	61.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	59.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗