KPDX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

28%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.8¢Risks 14.85u

WN2NO 85.2¢Risks 85.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.15u · WN2 −85.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T04:31:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:57+00:00	5.4%	28.9%	5.5%	9.5%	8.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	5.5%	28.9%	5.6%	9.6%	8.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	5.5%	30.6%	5.6%	9.6%	8.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	5.5%	30.6%	5.6%	9.6%	8.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	5.5%	30.6%	5.6%	9.6%	8.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	5.5%	30.6%	5.2%	9.6%	8.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	5.5%	30.6%	5.2%	9.6%	8.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	5.5%	30.6%	5.2%	9.6%	8.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	7.4%	30.6%	5.2%	9.6%	38.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	7.4%	30.6%	5.2%	9.6%	38.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	7.4%	30.6%	5.2%	9.6%	38.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	7.4%	30.6%	5.2%	9.6%	38.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	7.4%	30.6%	5.2%	4.7%	38.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	7.4%	30.6%	4.2%	4.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	7.4%	30.6%	4.2%	4.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	7.4%	30.6%	4.2%	4.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	5.7%	30.6%	4.2%	4.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	5.7%	30.6%	4.2%	4.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	5.7%	30.6%	4.2%	4.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	5.7%	30.6%	4.2%	4.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T04:42:36+00:00	5.7%	30.6%	4.2%	4.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	5.7%	30.6%	5.6%	4.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	5.7%	30.6%	5.6%	4.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	5.7%	30.6%	5.6%	4.7%	38.5%
2026-10-17T07:45:05+00:00	8.3%	30.6%	5.6%	5.8%	22.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00	8.3%	30.6%	5.6%	5.8%	22.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	8.3%	30.6%	5.6%	5.8%	22.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	8.3%	30.6%	5.6%	5.8%	22.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	8.3%	30.6%	5.6%	5.8%	22.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	8.3%	43.9%	1.5%	4.1%	28.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	8.3%	43.9%	1.5%	4.1%	28.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	8.3%	43.9%	1.5%	4.1%	28.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	8.3%	43.9%	1.5%	4.1%	28.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00	7.0%	43.9%	1.5%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	7.0%	43.9%	1.5%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	7.0%	43.9%	1.5%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	7.0%	43.9%	1.5%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	7.0%	29.2%	0.9%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	7.0%	29.2%	0.9%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	7.0%	29.2%	0.9%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	7.0%	29.2%	0.9%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	8.2%	29.6%	0.9%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	8.2%	29.6%	0.9%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	8.2%	27.7%	0.9%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	8.2%	27.7%	0.9%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	8.2%	27.7%	1.3%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	8.2%	27.7%	1.3%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	8.2%	27.7%	1.3%	4.2%	20.7%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	7.9%	27.7%	1.3%	2.3%	28.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	7.9%	27.7%	1.3%	2.3%	28.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	7.9%	27.7%	1.3%	2.3%	28.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	7.9%	27.7%	1.3%	2.3%	28.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	7.9%	27.7%	1.3%	2.3%	28.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	7.9%	27.7%	1.3%	2.3%	28.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	7.9%	27.7%	1.3%	2.3%	28.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	7.9%	27.7%	1.3%	2.3%	28.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	10.2%	27.7%	1.3%	2.3%	28.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	10.2%	27.7%	1.3%	2.3%	28.4%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	10.2%	27.7%	1.3%	2.3%	28.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	10.2%	27.7%	1.3%	2.3%	28.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:30+00:00	10.2%	27.7%	1.3%	2.3%	28.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	28%	65.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	64.8°F	6.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	62.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	56.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	59.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 69°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗