KPDX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

28%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.8¢Risks 14.85u

WN2NO 85.2¢Risks 85.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.15u · WN2 −85.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	5.0%	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	9.3%	3.8%	0.2%	—	2.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	4.8%	2.2%	1.2%	—	3.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	7.0%	8.1%	1.4%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	7.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	6.2%	6.4%	2.9%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	1.4%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	9.7%	4.7%	1.8%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.0%	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	6.5%	7.0%	3.9%	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.9%	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.3%	5.5%	3.4%	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.2%	5.1%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.2%	3.8%	1.6%	0.4%	0.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	3.2%	—	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	28%	65.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	64.8°F	6.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	62.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	56.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	59.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	61.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 69°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗