KPDX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

80%

70%

15%

14%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.5¢Risks 49.55u

HRESNO 50.4¢Risks 50.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.45u · HRES −50.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:30+00:00	75.9%	68.5%	28.2%	27.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	75.9%	68.5%	50.9%	27.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	75.9%	68.5%	50.9%	27.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	75.9%	68.5%	50.9%	27.7%	27.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00	9.8%	68.5%	50.9%	16.7%	90.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	9.8%	68.5%	50.9%	16.7%	90.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	9.8%	68.5%	50.9%	16.7%	90.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	9.8%	68.5%	50.9%	16.7%	90.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	9.8%	68.5%	50.9%	16.7%	90.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00	9.8%	80.9%	36.7%	16.7%	90.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	9.8%	80.9%	36.7%	16.7%	90.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	9.8%	80.9%	36.7%	16.7%	90.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	59.6%	80.9%	36.7%	16.7%	90.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00	59.6%	80.9%	36.7%	16.6%	90.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	59.6%	80.3%	36.7%	16.6%	90.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	59.6%	80.3%	36.7%	16.6%	90.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	59.6%	80.3%	36.7%	16.6%	90.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	59.6%	80.3%	58.7%	16.6%	90.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	59.6%	80.3%	58.7%	16.6%	90.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	59.6%	80.3%	58.7%	16.6%	90.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	6.4%	80.3%	58.7%	14.2%	15.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	6.4%	80.3%	58.7%	14.2%	15.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	6.4%	80.3%	58.7%	14.2%	15.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	6.4%	80.3%	58.7%	14.2%	15.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	6.4%	80.3%	58.7%	14.2%	15.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	6.4%	80.3%	70.4%	14.2%	15.1%
2026-10-20T00:17:09+00:00	6.4%	80.3%	70.4%	14.2%	15.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	6.4%	80.3%	70.4%	14.2%	15.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	84.9%	80.3%	70.4%	14.2%	15.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	84.9%	80.3%	70.4%	14.2%	15.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	84.9%	80.3%	70.4%	14.2%	15.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	64.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	63.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	61.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	60.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	15%	53.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	53.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗