KPDX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

80%

70%

15%

14%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.5¢Risks 49.55u

HRESNO 50.4¢Risks 50.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.45u · HRES −50.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	92.5%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.5%	81.5%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	50.7%	87.0%	5.1%	—	33.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	23.7%	90.4%	8.7%	—	25.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	6.5%	56.1%	16.4%	—	17.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	86.0%	59.5%	22.4%	—	21.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.0%	76.2%	8.7%	—	16.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	1.0%	75.4%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	44.8%	95.0%	50.9%	0.3%	50.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	—	90.8%	—	—	79.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	64.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	63.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	61.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	60.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	15%	53.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	53.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗