KPDX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 22.0¢Risks 22.00u

WN2NO 78.0¢Risks 78.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.00u · WN2 −78.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:45:06+00:00	0.8%	26.0%	18.4%	8.2%	6.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:53+00:00	0.8%	26.0%	18.4%	8.2%	6.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	0.8%	26.0%	18.4%	8.2%	6.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	0.8%	26.0%	18.4%	8.2%	6.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	0.8%	26.0%	18.4%	8.2%	6.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	0.8%	17.5%	4.2%	8.2%	6.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	0.8%	17.5%	4.2%	8.2%	6.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	0.8%	17.5%	4.2%	8.2%	6.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	0.1%	17.5%	4.2%	8.2%	6.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	0.1%	17.5%	4.3%	8.1%	6.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:19+00:00	0.1%	18.7%	4.3%	8.1%	6.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	0.1%	18.7%	4.3%	8.1%	6.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	0.1%	18.7%	7.1%	8.1%	6.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	0.1%	18.7%	7.1%	8.1%	6.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	0.1%	18.7%	7.1%	8.1%	6.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	0.1%	18.7%	7.1%	8.1%	6.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	7.1%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	7.1%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	7.1%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	7.1%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	1.6%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	1.6%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	1.6%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	1.6%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	1.6%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	1.6%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	1.6%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	1.6%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	1.6%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	1.6%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	1.6%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	0.2%	18.7%	1.6%	30.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00	0.1%	18.7%	1.6%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	0.1%	18.7%	1.6%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	0.1%	18.7%	1.6%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	0.1%	18.7%	1.6%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	0.1%	12.4%	0.9%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	0.1%	12.4%	0.9%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	0.1%	12.4%	0.9%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	0.1%	12.4%	0.9%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	28.3%	12.7%	0.9%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	28.3%	12.7%	0.9%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	28.3%	11.6%	0.9%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	28.3%	11.6%	0.9%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	28.3%	11.6%	1.7%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	28.3%	11.6%	1.7%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	28.3%	11.6%	1.7%	2.6%	12.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	1.0%	11.6%	1.7%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	1.0%	11.6%	1.7%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	1.0%	11.6%	1.7%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	1.0%	11.6%	1.7%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	1.0%	11.6%	1.7%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	1.0%	11.6%	1.1%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	1.0%	11.6%	1.1%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	1.0%	11.6%	1.1%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	21.9%	11.6%	1.1%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	21.9%	11.6%	1.1%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	21.9%	11.6%	1.1%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	21.9%	11.6%	1.1%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:31+00:00	21.9%	11.6%	1.1%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	21.9%	11.6%	4.5%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	21.9%	11.6%	4.5%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	21.9%	11.6%	4.5%	3.6%	4.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00	0.2%	11.6%	4.5%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	0.2%	11.6%	4.5%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	0.2%	11.6%	4.5%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	0.2%	11.6%	4.5%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	0.2%	11.6%	4.5%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00	0.2%	21.4%	1.1%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	0.2%	21.4%	1.1%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	0.2%	21.4%	1.1%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	8.5%	21.4%	1.1%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00	8.4%	21.4%	1.1%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	8.4%	20.8%	1.1%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	8.4%	20.8%	1.1%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	8.4%	20.8%	1.1%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	8.4%	20.8%	4.2%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	8.4%	20.8%	4.2%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	8.4%	20.8%	4.2%	0.9%	50.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	0.1%	20.8%	4.2%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	0.1%	20.8%	4.2%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	0.1%	20.8%	4.2%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	0.1%	20.8%	4.2%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	0.1%	20.8%	4.2%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	0.1%	20.8%	7.9%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:09+00:00	0.1%	20.8%	7.9%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	0.1%	20.8%	7.9%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	27.9%	20.8%	7.9%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	27.9%	20.8%	7.9%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	27.9%	20.8%	7.9%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	27.9%	20.8%	7.9%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	27.9%	20.8%	7.9%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	27.9%	20.8%	15.3%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	27.9%	20.8%	15.3%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	27.9%	20.8%	15.3%	0.7%	1.0%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	13.3%	20.8%	15.3%	0.7%	7.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	13.3%	20.8%	15.3%	0.7%	7.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00	13.3%	20.8%	15.3%	0.7%	7.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	13.3%	20.8%	15.3%	0.7%	7.8%
2026-10-20T10:54:16+00:00	13.3%	37.4%	6.6%	8.1%	7.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	13.3%	37.4%	6.6%	8.1%	7.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	13.3%	37.4%	6.6%	8.1%	7.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	13.3%	37.4%	6.6%	8.1%	7.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	37%	65.1°F	7.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	60.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	62.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	60.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	60.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	61.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 68°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗