KPDX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 22.0¢Risks 22.00u

WN2NO 78.0¢Risks 78.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.00u · WN2 −78.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	55.2%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	32.4%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	38.9%	0.1%	—	3.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	43.4%	0.2%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	8.4%	0.6%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	30.1%	8.7%	0.9%	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	16.8%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	0.0%	15.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	2.9%	45.6%	4.1%	0.0%	4.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	31.8%	—	—	16.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	37%	65.1°F	7.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	60.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	62.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	60.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	60.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	61.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 68°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗