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KPDX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≤ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
8%
ICON
7%
EPS
6%
AIFS
3%
WN2
1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 4.7¢Risks 1.16u
VS
WN2NO 95.3¢Risks 23.84u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.84u · WN2 −23.84u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:16+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 8.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:16+00:00IFS HRES: 8.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS HRES: 8.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 8.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 7.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:16+00:00ICON: 7.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00ICON: 7.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 7.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:16+00:002.6%6.1%1.2%8.1%7.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:002.6%6.1%1.2%8.1%7.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:002.6%6.1%1.2%8.1%7.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:002.6%6.1%1.2%8.1%7.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend17%60.0°F6.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast11%59.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES8%60.5°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON7%60.6°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%65.1°F7.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%62.4°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%61.9°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 53°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261024-TMAX-LE53
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Portland stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 53°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗