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KPDX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≤ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
8%
ICON
7%
EPS
6%
AIFS
3%
WN2
1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 4.6¢Risks 1.15u
VS
WN2NO 95.4¢Risks 23.85u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.85u · WN2 −23.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 90.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 82.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 35.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 73.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 64.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 72.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 60.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 43.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 33.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 54.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 92.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 64.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 93.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-09 12:0010-15 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0099.0%————64.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0073.0%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0011.5%————12.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0029.7%————14.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0026.5%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0060.5%————11.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:008.9%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:006.8%————11.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0012.0%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0011.0%————14.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0018.2%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0042.6%————15.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0042.6%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0040.5%————24.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0052.1%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0035.9%————22.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:004.5%—————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:002.5%————14.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0024.6%—64.2%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0013.0%————16.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0010.9%—————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:005.1%————20.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0059.5%—44.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0072.4%————14.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0027.3%—11.7%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0085.4%————14.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0088.8%—6.0%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0058.4%—0.8%——26.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0072.5%—0.5%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0074.6%82.9%2.8%——25.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0090.5%—21.8%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0090.1%14.1%1.4%72.0%—26.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0087.9%—0.1%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0088.0%35.0%0.8%60.1%—33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:008.0%—3.9%———
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0067.7%64.2%9.7%43.2%—40.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0010.5%—3.3%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0080.5%1.1%7.5%33.0%—33.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0022.4%—0.5%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0087.5%73.5%2.5%54.2%—39.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:004.7%85.3%2.4%——93.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0011.3%11.8%0.1%9.0%92.3%9.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:001.3%—0.4%——1.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend17%60.0°F6.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast11%59.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES8%60.5°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON7%60.6°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%65.1°F7.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%62.4°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%61.9°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 53°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261024-TMAX-LE53
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Portland stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 53°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗