KPDX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

55%

55%

48%

44%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.0¢Risks 25.00u

HRESNO 50.0¢Risks 25.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.00u · HRES −25.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:51+00:00	7.0%	59.0%	27.4%	27.8%	19.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	7.0%	59.0%	27.4%	27.8%	19.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	7.0%	59.0%	27.4%	27.8%	19.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	7.0%	59.0%	27.4%	27.8%	19.4%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	7.0%	53.3%	25.9%	27.8%	19.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	7.0%	53.3%	25.9%	27.8%	19.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:56+00:00	7.0%	53.3%	25.9%	27.8%	19.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	7.0%	53.3%	25.9%	27.8%	19.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	22.7%	53.2%	25.9%	27.8%	19.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	22.7%	53.2%	25.9%	27.8%	19.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	22.7%	51.6%	25.9%	27.8%	19.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	22.7%	51.6%	25.9%	27.8%	19.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	22.7%	51.6%	31.2%	27.8%	19.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	22.7%	51.6%	31.2%	27.8%	19.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	22.7%	51.6%	31.2%	27.8%	19.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	13.3%	51.6%	31.2%	18.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	13.3%	51.6%	31.2%	18.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	13.3%	51.6%	31.2%	18.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	13.3%	51.6%	31.2%	18.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	13.3%	51.6%	31.2%	18.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	13.3%	51.6%	24.1%	18.4%	37.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	13.3%	51.6%	24.1%	18.4%	37.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	13.3%	51.6%	24.1%	18.4%	37.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	12.9%	51.6%	24.1%	18.4%	37.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	12.9%	51.6%	24.1%	18.4%	37.5%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	12.9%	51.6%	24.1%	18.4%	37.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	12.9%	51.6%	24.1%	18.4%	37.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	32.8%	48.5%	17.9%	25.7%	52.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	32.8%	48.5%	17.9%	25.7%	52.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	32.8%	48.5%	17.9%	25.7%	52.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	32.8%	48.5%	43.2%	25.7%	52.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	32.8%	48.5%	43.2%	25.7%	52.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	32.8%	48.5%	43.2%	25.7%	52.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	9.1%	48.5%	43.2%	44.0%	54.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	9.1%	48.5%	43.2%	44.0%	54.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	9.1%	48.5%	43.2%	44.0%	54.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	9.1%	48.5%	43.2%	44.0%	54.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	9.1%	48.5%	43.2%	44.0%	54.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	9.1%	48.5%	56.0%	44.0%	54.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:09+00:00	9.1%	48.5%	56.0%	44.0%	54.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	9.1%	48.5%	56.0%	44.0%	54.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	55.2%	48.5%	56.0%	44.0%	54.5%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	55.2%	48.5%	56.0%	44.0%	54.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	55.2%	48.5%	56.0%	44.0%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	56%	62.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	62.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	55%	62.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	61.2°F	7.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	60.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗