KPDX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

55%

55%

48%

44%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.0¢Risks 25.00u

HRESNO 50.0¢Risks 25.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.00u · HRES −25.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	10.6%	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	95.2%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.2%	90.4%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	8.5%	42.3%	1.5%	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	27.9%	4.4%	21.5%	—	23.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	94.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	29.6%	87.5%	2.1%	—	25.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	77.0%	88.1%	54.0%	4.1%	54.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	95.3%	—	—	72.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	56%	62.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	62.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	55%	62.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	61.2°F	7.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	61.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	60.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗