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KPDX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
93%
EPS
64%
ICON
51%
WN2
43%
AIFS
20%
Consensus
55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 56.5¢Risks 56.45u
VS
AIFSNO 43.5¢Risks 43.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.55u · AIFS −43.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 35.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00IFS HRES: 67.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 59.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:0035.1%54.6%50.0%67.9%59.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:0035.1%54.6%50.0%67.9%59.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:0035.1%54.6%56.2%67.9%59.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0035.1%54.6%56.2%67.9%59.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0035.1%54.6%56.2%67.9%59.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:0019.7%54.6%56.2%67.9%50.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0019.7%54.6%56.2%67.9%50.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:0019.7%54.6%56.2%67.9%50.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0019.7%54.6%56.2%67.9%50.6%
2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:0019.7%64.3%43.2%93.2%50.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:0019.7%64.3%43.2%93.2%50.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0019.7%64.3%43.2%93.2%50.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0019.7%64.3%43.2%93.2%50.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES93%71.3°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble64%65.6°F11.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend59%63.0°F6.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%62.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
ICON51%61.6°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 243%60.7°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single20%56.9°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261026-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗