KPDX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

64%

51%

43%

20%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 56.5¢Risks 56.45u

AIFSNO 43.5¢Risks 43.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.55u · AIFS −43.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	39.8%	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	67.6%	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	2.1%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.6%	53.4%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	35.6%	59.7%	1.1%	—	31.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	26.0%	77.4%	70.9%	10.9%	46.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	88.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	71.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	65.6°F	11.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	63.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	51%	61.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	60.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	56.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261026-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗