KPDX / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

62%

40%

36%

17%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

AIFSNO 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.20u · AIFS −44.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	79.9%	—	21.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	26.0%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	5.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	72.5%	—	25.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	92.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	95.2%	—	24.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	96.0%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	8.2%	23.3%	1.1%	41.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	91.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	94%	71.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	64.8°F	10.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	62.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	60.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	57.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	56.1°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261027-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗