KPHL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

97%

88%

70%

68%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.2¢Risks 83.25u

ICONNO 16.8¢Risks 16.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.75u · ICON −16.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:19:40+00:00	39.4%	78.6%	70.8%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	39.4%	78.6%	70.8%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	39.4%	78.6%	70.8%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:34+00:00	61.3%	78.6%	70.8%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:09+00:00	61.3%	78.6%	70.8%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:22+00:00	61.3%	79.8%	70.8%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	61.3%	79.8%	70.8%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	61.3%	79.8%	70.8%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T17:27:42+00:00	61.3%	79.8%	70.8%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	61.3%	79.8%	67.9%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	61.3%	79.8%	67.9%	89.4%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:26+00:00	92.6%	79.8%	67.9%	84.0%	81.7%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	92.6%	79.8%	67.9%	84.0%	81.7%
2026-10-11T21:13:47+00:00	92.6%	79.8%	67.9%	84.0%	81.7%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	92.6%	79.8%	67.9%	84.0%	81.7%
2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00	92.6%	79.8%	67.9%	84.0%	81.7%
2026-10-11T23:29:22+00:00	92.6%	79.8%	91.8%	84.0%	81.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:41+00:00	92.6%	79.8%	91.8%	84.0%	81.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	92.6%	79.8%	91.8%	84.0%	81.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	97.8%	79.8%	91.8%	84.0%	81.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:26+00:00	97.8%	79.8%	91.8%	84.0%	81.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:34+00:00	97.8%	79.8%	91.8%	84.0%	81.7%
2026-10-12T15:26:33+00:00	86.3%	88.5%	97.2%	85.7%	91.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	86.3%	86.1%	97.2%	85.7%	91.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	86.3%	86.1%	97.2%	85.7%	91.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	86.3%	86.1%	97.2%	85.7%	91.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	86.3%	86.1%	97.2%	85.7%	91.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	86.3%	86.1%	97.2%	85.7%	91.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	92.6%	86.1%	97.2%	81.2%	74.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	92.6%	86.1%	97.2%	81.2%	74.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	92.6%	86.1%	97.2%	81.2%	74.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	92.6%	86.1%	97.2%	81.2%	74.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	92.6%	86.1%	97.9%	81.2%	74.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	92.6%	86.1%	97.9%	81.2%	74.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	92.6%	86.1%	97.9%	81.2%	74.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	92.6%	86.1%	97.9%	81.2%	74.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	95.3%	86.1%	97.9%	81.2%	74.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	95.3%	86.1%	97.9%	81.2%	74.8%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	95.3%	86.1%	97.9%	81.2%	74.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:36+00:00	96.0%	74.0%	98.2%	50.0%	78.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	96.0%	74.0%	98.2%	50.0%	78.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	96.0%	74.0%	99.3%	50.0%	78.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:32+00:00	96.0%	74.0%	99.3%	50.0%	78.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	96.0%	74.0%	99.3%	50.0%	78.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	96.0%	74.0%	99.3%	50.0%	78.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	94.9%	74.0%	99.3%	67.3%	83.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	94.9%	74.0%	99.3%	67.3%	83.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	94.9%	74.0%	99.3%	67.3%	83.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	94.9%	74.0%	99.3%	67.3%	83.1%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	94.9%	74.0%	98.4%	67.3%	83.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	94.9%	74.0%	98.4%	67.3%	83.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	94.9%	74.0%	98.4%	67.3%	83.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	93.6%	74.0%	98.4%	67.3%	83.1%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	93.6%	74.0%	98.4%	67.3%	83.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	93.6%	74.0%	98.4%	67.3%	83.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	93.6%	74.0%	98.4%	67.3%	83.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	96.2%	64.7%	96.5%	55.8%	78.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	96.2%	64.8%	96.5%	55.8%	78.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	96.2%	64.8%	96.5%	55.8%	78.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	96.2%	64.8%	98.6%	55.8%	78.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	96.2%	64.8%	98.6%	55.8%	78.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	96.2%	64.8%	98.6%	55.8%	78.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:00	94.8%	64.8%	98.6%	55.8%	69.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	94.8%	64.8%	98.6%	55.8%	69.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	94.8%	64.8%	98.6%	55.8%	69.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	94.8%	64.8%	98.6%	55.8%	69.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	94.8%	64.8%	98.6%	70.4%	69.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:14+00:00	94.8%	64.8%	98.3%	70.4%	69.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:45+00:00	94.8%	64.8%	98.3%	70.4%	69.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	94.8%	64.8%	98.3%	70.4%	69.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	96.2%	64.8%	98.3%	70.4%	69.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	96.2%	64.8%	98.3%	70.4%	69.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	96.2%	64.8%	98.3%	70.4%	69.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	96.2%	64.8%	98.3%	70.4%	69.4%
2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:00	96.2%	64.8%	98.3%	70.4%	69.4%
2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:00	96.2%	64.8%	98.3%	70.4%	69.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	96.2%	64.8%	98.9%	70.4%	69.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	96.2%	64.8%	98.9%	70.4%	69.4%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00	96.8%	64.8%	98.9%	69.5%	67.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	96.8%	64.8%	98.9%	69.5%	67.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00	96.8%	64.8%	98.9%	69.5%	67.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	96.8%	64.8%	98.9%	69.5%	67.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	96.8%	64.8%	98.9%	69.5%	67.5%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	96.8%	88.8%	99.0%	69.5%	67.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	96.8%	88.8%	99.0%	69.5%	67.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	96.8%	88.8%	99.0%	69.5%	67.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	96.9%	88.8%	99.0%	69.5%	67.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	97.0%	88.4%	99.0%	69.5%	67.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	63.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0001
AIFS Single	97%	63.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0009
IFS Ensemble	88%	60.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0135
National Blend	87%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0164
IFS HRES	70%	58.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0930
ICON	68%	58.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗