KPHL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

97%

88%

70%

68%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.2¢Risks 83.25u

ICONNO 16.8¢Risks 16.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.75u · ICON −16.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	75.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	41.0%	—	—	75.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	80.2%	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	46.8%	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	9.0%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.1%	78.1%	22.4%	33.0%	—	57.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	86.1%	36.4%	69.6%	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	59.1%	44.7%	77.8%	—	54.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	87.7%	63.3%	73.9%	—	59.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	19.5%	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	89.2%	86.7%	56.6%	—	58.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	80.5%	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	75.9%	89.9%	50.0%	—	31.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	55.4%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	58.2%	83.4%	40.9%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.9%	62.1%	79.7%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	72.1%	80.3%	40.4%	—	38.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	59.9%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	78.8%	80.3%	40.8%	—	46.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	75.5%	77.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	80.2%	60.8%	45.6%	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	77.7%	54.5%	0.6%	—	43.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	73.0%	72.0%	53.5%	—	52.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	77.5%	76.6%	56.0%	—	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	81.8%	80.9%	59.9%	32.0%	57.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	79.1%	82.6%	69.8%	—	63.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	81.8%	89.3%	78.0%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	83.6%	88.9%	77.9%	—	65.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	86.2%	95.3%	74.4%	57.2%	66.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	91.4%	85.6%	96.3%	70.2%	—	61.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	84.8%	96.6%	72.4%	50.0%	65.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	92.7%	97.4%	83.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	63.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0001
AIFS Single	97%	63.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0009
IFS Ensemble	88%	60.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0135
National Blend	87%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0164
IFS HRES	70%	58.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0930
ICON	68%	58.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗