KPHL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

65%

61%

33%

26%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.4¢Risks 53.35u

HRESNO 46.6¢Risks 46.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.65u · HRES −46.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:27+00:00	50.8%	60.1%	80.9%	47.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	50.8%	60.1%	80.9%	47.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	50.8%	60.1%	80.9%	47.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	50.8%	60.1%	80.9%	47.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	50.8%	60.1%	80.9%	47.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:06+00:00	50.8%	60.1%	80.9%	47.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	50.9%	60.1%	80.9%	47.9%	64.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	50.9%	60.1%	80.9%	47.9%	64.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	50.9%	60.1%	80.9%	47.9%	64.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	50.9%	60.1%	80.9%	47.9%	64.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:05+00:00	50.9%	60.1%	80.9%	25.5%	64.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	50.9%	32.7%	81.2%	25.5%	64.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00	50.9%	32.7%	81.2%	25.5%	64.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	50.9%	32.7%	81.2%	25.5%	64.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	61.1%	32.7%	81.2%	25.5%	64.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	61.1%	32.7%	81.2%	25.5%	65.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	62.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0353
National Blend	71%	62.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0864
ICON	65%	61.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1204
AIFS Single	61%	60.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1513
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	33%	57.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.4529
IFS HRES	26%	56.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.5550

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗