KPHL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

65%

61%

33%

26%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.4¢Risks 53.35u

HRESNO 46.6¢Risks 46.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.65u · HRES −46.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	24.7%	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	64.7%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	28.4%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	3.2%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	59.7%	9.9%	16.6%	—	36.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	70.3%	18.4%	48.5%	—	42.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	36.5%	23.9%	57.6%	—	32.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	71.2%	39.7%	51.6%	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	7.0%	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	72.8%	68.5%	32.2%	—	33.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	58.5%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	51.7%	73.1%	25.5%	—	12.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	29.4%	64.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	31.4%	60.9%	17.8%	—	12.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	34.3%	54.7%	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	44.2%	54.9%	16.5%	—	15.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	30.8%	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	51.0%	53.1%	15.7%	—	19.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	45.8%	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	51.1%	29.2%	17.6%	—	7.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	46.6%	23.1%	0.0%	—	15.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	39.6%	38.5%	21.5%	—	20.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	44.0%	42.8%	22.5%	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	48.8%	47.5%	24.6%	8.0%	22.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	43.6%	48.7%	32.5%	—	26.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	46.0%	59.3%	40.7%	15.7%	24.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	47.2%	56.9%	39.0%	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	50.0%	72.0%	33.1%	18.2%	25.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	47.0%	74.0%	27.2%	—	20.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.4%	43.7%	73.7%	27.6%	11.7%	21.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	58.2%	75.9%	38.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	62.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0353
National Blend	71%	62.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0864
ICON	65%	61.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1204
AIFS Single	61%	60.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1513
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	33%	57.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.4529
IFS HRES	26%	56.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.5550

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗