KPHL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

88%

83%

42%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.3¢Risks 70.35u

ICONNO 29.6¢Risks 29.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.65u · ICON −29.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	85.3%	37.5%	92.7%	13.6%	87.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	85.3%	37.4%	92.7%	13.6%	87.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	85.3%	37.4%	92.7%	13.6%	87.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	85.3%	37.4%	98.1%	13.6%	87.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	85.3%	37.4%	98.1%	13.6%	87.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	85.3%	37.4%	98.1%	13.6%	87.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:00	90.1%	37.4%	98.1%	13.6%	81.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	90.1%	37.4%	98.1%	13.6%	81.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	90.1%	37.4%	98.1%	13.6%	81.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	90.1%	37.4%	98.1%	13.6%	81.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	90.1%	37.4%	98.1%	72.0%	81.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:14+00:00	90.1%	37.4%	98.5%	72.0%	81.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:45+00:00	90.1%	37.4%	98.5%	72.0%	81.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	90.1%	37.4%	98.5%	72.0%	81.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	93.3%	37.4%	98.5%	72.0%	81.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	93.3%	37.4%	98.5%	72.0%	81.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	93.3%	37.4%	98.5%	72.0%	81.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	93.3%	37.4%	98.5%	72.0%	81.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	96.2%	83.3%	98.8%	80.3%	76.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	96.2%	83.3%	98.8%	80.3%	76.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	96.2%	83.3%	99.3%	80.3%	76.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	96.2%	83.3%	99.3%	80.3%	76.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	96.2%	83.3%	99.3%	80.3%	76.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	96.2%	83.3%	99.3%	80.3%	76.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	94.3%	83.3%	99.3%	88.4%	42.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	94.3%	83.3%	99.3%	88.4%	42.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	94.3%	83.3%	99.3%	88.4%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00	94.3%	83.3%	99.3%	88.4%	42.2%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	94.3%	83.3%	98.5%	88.4%	42.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	94.3%	83.3%	98.5%	88.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	94.3%	83.3%	98.5%	88.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	94.3%	83.3%	98.5%	88.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	94.0%	83.3%	98.5%	88.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	94.0%	83.3%	98.5%	88.4%	42.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	94.0%	83.3%	98.5%	88.4%	42.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	68.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	67.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	66.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	65.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	64.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	42%	60.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗