KPHL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

88%

83%

42%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.3¢Risks 70.35u

ICONNO 29.6¢Risks 29.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.65u · ICON −29.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	64.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	1.5%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	47.4%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	15.5%	72.4%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	17.5%	61.8%	29.2%	—	62.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	85.6%	57.3%	78.5%	—	64.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	88.6%	90.3%	72.4%	—	63.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	81.1%	87.3%	39.7%	—	46.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	2.2%	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	63.1%	79.3%	10.4%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	58.5%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	64.6%	70.1%	3.1%	—	43.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	74.3%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	65.3%	80.4%	45.4%	—	40.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	50.0%	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	82.3%	44.2%	41.3%	—	13.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	81.7%	0.8%	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	76.5%	31.2%	62.2%	—	46.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	87.4%	48.9%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	77.8%	53.3%	80.2%	0.0%	60.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	52.2%	72.4%	0.5%	—	66.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	45.4%	71.0%	88.4%	51.2%	66.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	86.1%	69.6%	86.1%	—	58.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	62.3%	82.6%	84.1%	0.0%	66.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	72.0%	87.2%	75.2%	—	55.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	74.9%	86.6%	74.9%	60.6%	70.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	84.5%	88.9%	80.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	82.8%	89.8%	82.8%	88.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	68.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	67.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	66.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	65.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	64.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	42%	60.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗