KPHL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

76%

71%

35%

33%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.2¢Risks 58.25u

HRESNO 41.8¢Risks 41.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.75u · HRES −41.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:36+00:00	92.1%	66.6%	86.7%	56.6%	66.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	92.1%	66.6%	86.7%	56.6%	66.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	92.1%	66.6%	93.8%	56.6%	66.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:32+00:00	92.1%	66.6%	93.8%	56.6%	66.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	92.1%	66.6%	93.8%	56.6%	66.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	92.1%	66.6%	93.8%	56.6%	66.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	44.8%	66.6%	93.8%	55.4%	75.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	44.8%	66.6%	93.8%	55.4%	75.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	44.8%	66.6%	93.8%	55.4%	75.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	44.8%	66.6%	93.8%	55.4%	75.9%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	44.8%	66.6%	88.9%	55.4%	75.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	44.8%	66.6%	88.9%	55.4%	75.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	44.8%	66.6%	88.9%	55.4%	75.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	55.2%	66.6%	88.9%	55.4%	75.9%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	55.2%	66.6%	88.9%	55.4%	75.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	55.2%	66.6%	88.9%	55.4%	75.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	55.2%	66.6%	88.9%	55.4%	75.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:07+00:00	55.6%	42.1%	85.2%	41.8%	75.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	55.6%	42.1%	85.2%	41.8%	75.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	55.6%	42.1%	85.2%	41.8%	75.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	55.6%	42.1%	88.8%	41.8%	75.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	55.6%	42.1%	88.8%	41.8%	75.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	55.6%	42.1%	88.8%	41.8%	75.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:00	74.7%	42.1%	88.8%	41.8%	64.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	74.7%	42.1%	88.8%	41.8%	64.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	74.7%	42.1%	88.8%	41.8%	64.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	74.7%	42.1%	88.8%	41.8%	64.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	74.7%	42.1%	88.8%	36.5%	64.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00	74.7%	42.1%	88.8%	36.5%	64.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	74.7%	42.1%	88.8%	36.5%	64.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	74.7%	42.1%	88.8%	36.5%	64.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	73.4%	42.1%	88.8%	36.5%	64.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	73.4%	42.1%	88.8%	36.5%	64.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	73.4%	42.1%	88.8%	36.5%	64.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	73.4%	42.1%	88.8%	36.5%	64.3%
2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:00	73.4%	42.1%	88.8%	36.5%	64.3%
2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:00	73.4%	42.1%	88.8%	36.5%	64.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	73.4%	42.1%	88.3%	36.5%	64.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	73.4%	42.1%	88.3%	36.5%	64.3%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00	54.3%	42.1%	88.3%	24.8%	28.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	54.3%	42.1%	88.3%	24.8%	28.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00	54.3%	42.1%	88.3%	24.8%	28.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	54.3%	42.1%	88.3%	24.8%	28.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	54.3%	42.1%	88.3%	24.8%	28.2%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	54.3%	75.2%	78.2%	24.8%	28.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	54.3%	75.2%	78.2%	24.8%	28.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	54.3%	75.2%	78.2%	24.8%	28.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	66.9%	75.2%	78.2%	24.8%	28.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	66.8%	75.2%	78.2%	24.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	66.8%	76.4%	78.2%	24.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	66.8%	76.4%	78.2%	24.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	66.8%	76.4%	69.5%	24.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	66.8%	76.4%	69.5%	24.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	66.8%	76.4%	69.5%	24.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	66.8%	76.4%	69.5%	24.8%	28.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	47.4%	76.4%	69.5%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	47.4%	76.4%	69.5%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	47.4%	76.4%	69.5%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00	47.4%	76.4%	69.5%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	47.4%	76.4%	48.9%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	47.4%	76.4%	48.9%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	47.4%	76.4%	48.9%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	47.4%	76.4%	48.9%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	54.3%	76.4%	48.9%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	54.3%	76.4%	48.9%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	54.3%	76.4%	48.9%	25.5%	20.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00	50.0%	60.8%	45.3%	22.3%	29.9%
2026-10-19T05:16:51+00:00	50.0%	60.8%	71.4%	22.3%	29.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	50.0%	60.8%	71.4%	22.3%	29.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	50.0%	60.8%	71.4%	22.3%	29.9%
2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00	70.6%	60.8%	71.4%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	70.6%	60.8%	71.4%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	70.6%	60.8%	71.4%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	70.6%	60.8%	71.4%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00	70.6%	60.8%	71.4%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	70.6%	63.7%	84.1%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00	70.6%	63.7%	84.1%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00	70.6%	63.7%	84.1%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	64.4%	63.7%	84.1%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	64.5%	63.7%	84.1%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	64.5%	65.1%	84.1%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	64.5%	65.1%	84.1%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	64.5%	65.1%	84.1%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	64.5%	65.1%	80.8%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	64.5%	65.1%	80.8%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	64.5%	65.1%	80.8%	21.8%	42.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	67.2%	65.1%	80.8%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	67.2%	65.1%	80.8%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	67.2%	65.1%	80.8%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	67.2%	65.1%	80.8%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	67.2%	65.1%	80.8%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	67.2%	65.1%	80.8%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:00	67.2%	65.1%	80.8%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	67.2%	65.1%	80.8%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	72.4%	65.1%	80.8%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	72.4%	65.1%	80.8%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	72.4%	65.1%	80.8%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00	72.4%	65.1%	80.8%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00	72.4%	65.1%	80.8%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	72.4%	65.1%	82.5%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	72.4%	65.1%	82.5%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00	72.4%	65.1%	82.5%	24.7%	31.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	75.4%	65.1%	82.5%	24.7%	34.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	75.4%	65.1%	82.5%	24.7%	34.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00	75.4%	65.1%	82.5%	24.7%	34.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	75.4%	65.1%	82.5%	24.7%	34.6%
2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00	75.4%	71.1%	83.2%	33.3%	34.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00	75.4%	71.1%	83.2%	33.3%	34.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	75.4%	71.1%	83.2%	33.3%	34.6%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	75.4%	71.1%	83.2%	33.3%	34.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	75.5%	71.1%	83.2%	33.3%	34.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00	75.5%	71.1%	83.2%	33.3%	34.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	68.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	68.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	67.3°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	35%	64.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	63.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗