KPHL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

76%

73%

35%

33%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.2¢Risks 58.25u

HRESNO 41.8¢Risks 41.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.75u · HRES −41.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	26.4%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	38.2%	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	87.0%	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.3%	33.0%	82.9%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	61.8%	67.0%	25.2%	—	36.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	46.4%	49.3%	39.9%	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	60.6%	51.5%	73.0%	—	45.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	61.8%	51.6%	64.1%	—	21.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	17.9%	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	45.8%	21.9%	45.0%	—	23.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	38.2%	32.6%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	16.1%	29.1%	29.1%	—	16.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	24.2%	37.6%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	9.0%	32.2%	16.6%	—	10.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	21.7%	30.9%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	29.6%	30.4%	29.6%	—	9.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	11.0%	36.3%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	23.5%	33.0%	16.3%	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	31.6%	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	45.6%	23.8%	30.1%	—	9.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	18.3%	24.0%	0.4%	—	6.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	34.1%	25.1%	5.1%	2.4%	6.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	37.0%	28.3%	4.3%	—	8.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	47.5%	27.6%	21.7%	33.1%	13.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	25.9%	23.8%	—	12.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	68.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	67.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	68.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	67.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	35%	64.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	63.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗