KPHL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

59%

54%

36%

16%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

HRESNO 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.30u · HRES −61.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:05+00:00	82.3%	48.8%	86.7%	56.3%	41.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	82.3%	33.4%	77.1%	56.3%	41.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00	82.3%	33.4%	77.1%	56.3%	41.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	82.3%	33.4%	77.1%	56.3%	41.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	78.8%	33.4%	77.1%	56.3%	41.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	78.8%	33.4%	77.0%	56.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00	78.8%	35.9%	77.0%	56.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	78.8%	35.9%	77.0%	56.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	78.8%	35.9%	77.0%	56.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00	78.8%	35.9%	69.8%	56.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	78.8%	35.9%	69.8%	56.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	78.8%	35.9%	69.8%	56.3%	42.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	52.8%	35.9%	69.8%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	52.8%	35.9%	69.8%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	52.8%	35.9%	69.8%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	52.8%	35.9%	69.8%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	52.8%	35.9%	69.8%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	52.8%	35.9%	61.8%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00	52.8%	35.9%	61.8%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	52.8%	35.9%	61.8%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	53.5%	35.9%	61.8%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	53.5%	35.9%	61.8%	15.6%	59.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	53.5%	35.9%	61.8%	15.6%	59.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	62%	71.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	59%	71.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	70.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	68.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	63.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261021-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 70°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗