KPHL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

59%

54%

36%

16%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

HRESNO 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.30u · HRES −61.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	11.1%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	17.6%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	68.2%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	13.2%	60.7%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	34.3%	39.6%	8.5%	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.3%	20.4%	22.6%	16.1%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	30.9%	23.4%	43.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	30.9%	22.4%	33.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	4.1%	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	17.3%	5.3%	16.8%	—	6.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	12.3%	9.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	3.1%	7.7%	7.7%	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	5.5%	11.2%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.2%	8.3%	2.9%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	4.2%	7.4%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	6.5%	6.8%	6.5%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.3%	8.8%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.0%	7.1%	2.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.2%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	11.4%	3.5%	5.3%	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	2.1%	3.3%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	5.7%	3.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	6.2%	3.7%	0.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	9.5%	3.3%	2.1%	4.6%	0.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	2.6%	2.2%	—	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	62%	71.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	59%	71.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	70.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	68.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	63.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261021-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 70°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗