KPHL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 8.9¢Risks 4.45u

EPSNO 91.1¢Risks 45.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.55u · EPS −45.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:05+00:00	44.3%	3.6%	50.0%	21.5%	20.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	44.3%	1.6%	32.2%	21.5%	20.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00	44.3%	1.6%	32.2%	21.5%	20.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	44.3%	1.6%	32.2%	21.5%	20.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	39.5%	1.6%	32.2%	21.5%	20.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	39.5%	1.6%	32.3%	21.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00	39.5%	2.1%	32.3%	21.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	39.5%	2.1%	32.3%	21.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	39.5%	2.1%	32.3%	21.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00	39.5%	2.1%	24.9%	21.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	39.5%	2.1%	24.9%	21.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	39.5%	2.1%	24.9%	21.5%	21.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	16.0%	2.1%	24.9%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	16.0%	2.1%	24.9%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	16.0%	2.1%	24.9%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	16.0%	2.1%	24.9%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	16.0%	2.1%	24.9%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	16.0%	2.1%	18.5%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00	16.0%	2.1%	18.5%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	16.0%	2.1%	18.5%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	16.4%	2.1%	18.5%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	16.4%	2.1%	18.5%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	16.4%	2.1%	18.5%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-15T04:01:45+00:00	16.4%	2.1%	18.5%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	16.4%	2.1%	18.5%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	16.4%	2.1%	20.1%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	16.4%	2.1%	20.1%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	16.4%	2.1%	20.1%	2.5%	35.5%
2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00	14.1%	2.1%	20.1%	8.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	14.1%	2.1%	20.1%	8.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:00	14.1%	2.1%	20.1%	8.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:00	14.1%	2.1%	20.1%	8.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	14.1%	2.1%	20.1%	8.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:03+00:00	14.1%	2.1%	15.2%	8.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	14.1%	1.3%	15.2%	8.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	14.1%	1.3%	15.2%	8.8%	16.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	32.8%	1.3%	15.2%	8.9%	16.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	32.8%	1.3%	15.2%	8.9%	16.6%
2026-10-15T15:33:37+00:00	32.8%	1.2%	15.2%	8.9%	16.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	32.8%	1.2%	15.2%	8.9%	16.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	32.8%	1.2%	27.4%	8.9%	16.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:32+00:00	32.8%	1.2%	27.4%	8.9%	16.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	32.8%	1.2%	27.4%	8.9%	16.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	32.8%	1.2%	27.4%	8.9%	16.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	2.4%	1.2%	27.4%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	2.4%	1.2%	27.4%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	2.4%	1.2%	27.4%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	2.4%	1.2%	27.4%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	2.4%	1.2%	17.9%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	2.4%	1.2%	17.9%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	2.4%	1.2%	17.9%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	17.9%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	17.9%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	17.9%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	17.9%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	17.9%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	12.8%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	12.8%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	12.8%	8.4%	24.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	1.3%	1.2%	12.8%	8.4%	16.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	1.3%	1.2%	12.8%	8.4%	16.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	1.3%	1.2%	12.8%	8.4%	16.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	1.3%	1.2%	12.8%	8.4%	16.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	1.3%	1.2%	12.8%	8.4%	16.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	17%	69.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	70.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	66.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	64.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	67.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261021-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗