KPHL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 10:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 8.9¢Risks 4.45u

EPSNO 91.1¢Risks 45.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.55u · EPS −45.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	1.8%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	3.0%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	30.6%	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	1.6%	22.8%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	7.2%	9.3%	0.8%	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	2.7%	3.2%	1.8%	—	2.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.0%	3.0%	9.7%	—	2.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.5%	2.5%	5.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.4%	0.2%	1.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.7%	0.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	0.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	17%	69.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	70.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	66.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	64.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	67.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261021-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗