KPHL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

76%

68%

42%

22%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 48.9¢Risks 48.90u

HRESNO 51.1¢Risks 51.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +51.10u · HRES −51.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:03+00:00	69.7%	87.8%	78.2%	32.9%	50.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	69.7%	74.3%	78.2%	32.9%	50.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	69.7%	74.3%	78.2%	32.9%	50.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	85.0%	74.3%	77.9%	33.1%	50.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	85.0%	74.3%	77.9%	33.1%	50.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:37+00:00	85.0%	75.5%	77.9%	33.1%	50.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	85.0%	75.5%	77.9%	33.1%	50.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	85.0%	75.5%	84.7%	33.1%	50.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:32+00:00	85.0%	75.5%	84.7%	33.1%	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	85.0%	75.5%	84.7%	33.1%	50.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	85.0%	75.5%	84.7%	33.1%	50.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	39.6%	75.5%	84.7%	21.8%	76.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	39.6%	75.5%	84.7%	21.8%	76.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	39.6%	75.5%	84.7%	21.8%	76.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	39.6%	75.5%	84.7%	21.8%	76.0%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	39.6%	75.5%	68.2%	21.8%	76.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	39.6%	75.5%	68.2%	21.8%	76.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	39.6%	75.5%	68.2%	21.8%	76.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	42.4%	75.5%	68.2%	21.8%	76.0%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	42.4%	75.5%	68.2%	21.8%	76.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	42.4%	75.5%	68.2%	21.8%	76.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	42.4%	75.5%	68.2%	21.8%	76.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	76%	71.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	67.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	66.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	63.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	59.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 65°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗