KPHL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

76%

68%

42%

22%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 48.9¢Risks 48.90u

HRESNO 51.1¢Risks 51.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +51.10u · HRES −51.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	67.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	86.5%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	77.9%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	21.8%	47.3%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	66.4%	50.0%	57.0%	—	36.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	83.9%	12.0%	40.6%	—	19.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	21.6%	9.3%	58.3%	—	22.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	39.7%	57.1%	64.1%	—	27.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	18.4%	61.3%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	26.5%	77.5%	55.8%	—	36.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	58.5%	68.9%	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	77.9%	75.2%	77.2%	47.4%	—	46.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	64.1%	79.1%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	77.7%	77.7%	82.8%	45.4%	—	49.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	85.2%	73.2%	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	85.8%	81.7%	81.0%	53.9%	—	53.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	81.7%	70.1%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	87.7%	74.1%	82.4%	32.1%	—	53.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	82.4%	78.0%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	90.1%	79.4%	83.8%	50.0%	61.8%	61.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	86.5%	0.2%	—	59.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	90.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	76%	71.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	67.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	66.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	63.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	59.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 65°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗