KPHL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

79%

55%

50%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.6¢Risks 72.60u

HRESNO 27.4¢Risks 27.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.40u · HRES −27.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	35.7%	67.5%	60.9%	17.5%	72.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	35.7%	67.5%	48.4%	17.5%	72.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	35.7%	67.5%	48.4%	17.5%	72.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	35.7%	67.5%	48.4%	17.5%	72.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	51.5%	67.5%	48.4%	17.5%	87.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	51.5%	67.5%	48.4%	17.5%	87.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	51.5%	67.5%	48.4%	17.5%	87.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	51.5%	67.5%	48.4%	17.5%	87.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	51.5%	67.5%	48.4%	17.5%	87.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	51.5%	30.5%	59.3%	17.5%	87.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	51.5%	30.5%	59.3%	17.5%	87.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	51.5%	30.5%	59.3%	17.5%	87.0%
2026-10-16T13:27:55+00:00	20.2%	30.5%	59.3%	20.2%	87.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	20.3%	30.5%	59.3%	20.2%	87.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	93.5%	41.9%	77.5%	56.2%	41.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	93.5%	41.9%	93.1%	56.2%	41.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	93.5%	41.9%	93.1%	56.2%	41.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	93.5%	41.9%	93.1%	56.2%	41.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	93.5%	41.9%	93.1%	56.2%	41.6%
2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:00	91.5%	41.9%	93.1%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	91.5%	41.9%	93.1%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	91.5%	41.9%	93.1%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	91.5%	41.9%	93.1%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:32+00:00	91.5%	62.2%	92.6%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:10+00:00	91.5%	62.2%	92.6%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	91.5%	62.2%	92.6%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	91.5%	62.2%	92.6%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	92.8%	62.2%	92.6%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:27+00:00	92.8%	62.2%	92.6%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	92.8%	55.1%	92.6%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	92.8%	55.1%	92.6%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	92.8%	55.1%	94.0%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:14+00:00	92.8%	55.1%	94.0%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	92.8%	55.1%	94.0%	54.0%	78.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	90.8%	55.1%	94.0%	50.0%	79.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	90.8%	55.1%	94.0%	50.0%	79.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	90.8%	55.1%	94.0%	50.0%	79.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	90.8%	55.1%	94.0%	50.0%	79.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	90.8%	55.1%	94.0%	50.0%	79.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	90.8%	55.1%	95.2%	50.0%	79.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	90.8%	55.1%	95.2%	50.0%	79.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	90.8%	55.1%	95.2%	50.0%	79.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	94.2%	55.1%	95.2%	50.0%	79.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	94.2%	55.1%	95.2%	50.0%	79.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	94.2%	55.1%	95.2%	50.0%	79.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	94.2%	55.1%	95.2%	50.0%	79.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	72.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	79%	69.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	67.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	65.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗