KPHL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

79%

55%

50%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.6¢Risks 72.60u

HRESNO 27.4¢Risks 27.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.40u · HRES −27.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	82.8%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	72.7%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	17.1%	40.6%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	59.7%	43.0%	50.0%	—	29.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	79.0%	8.7%	33.7%	—	14.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	16.4%	6.5%	50.8%	—	17.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	32.3%	49.2%	56.4%	—	21.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	13.5%	53.3%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	20.1%	70.7%	47.5%	—	29.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	50.0%	61.0%	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	67.8%	70.1%	38.8%	—	37.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	55.4%	72.1%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	70.3%	76.3%	36.4%	—	40.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	79.0%	64.8%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	74.5%	73.7%	44.2%	—	44.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	74.3%	60.9%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	65.1%	74.9%	23.5%	—	42.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	74.7%	69.3%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	70.8%	76.2%	39.2%	51.1%	51.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	79.4%	0.1%	—	47.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	71.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	72.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	79%	69.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	67.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	65.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗