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KPHL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
73%
WN2
66%
AIFS
56%
ICON
42%
HRES
22%
Consensus
57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 47.6¢Risks 47.65u
VS
HRESNO 52.4¢Risks 52.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.35u · HRES −52.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.9% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:0010-15 07:4810-15 09:2110-15 10:52
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:0056.4%72.9%65.8%22.4%42.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:0056.4%72.9%65.8%22.4%42.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:0056.4%72.9%65.8%22.4%42.0%
2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:0056.4%72.9%65.8%22.4%42.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:0056.4%72.9%65.8%22.4%42.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble73%68.7°F3.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 266%68.7°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
AIFS Single56%67.4°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend55%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON42%64.5°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES22%61.7°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗