KPHL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

66%

56%

42%

22%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.6¢Risks 47.65u

HRESNO 52.4¢Risks 52.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.35u · HRES −52.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	78.5%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	74.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	67.0%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	13.2%	34.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	52.8%	36.2%	43.0%	—	24.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	73.4%	6.2%	27.2%	—	10.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	12.2%	4.4%	43.2%	—	12.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	25.5%	41.3%	48.4%	—	15.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	9.5%	45.1%	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	14.8%	63.1%	39.3%	—	22.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	41.5%	52.6%	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	59.6%	62.1%	30.7%	—	29.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	46.4%	64.1%	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	61.8%	68.6%	28.2%	—	31.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	55.7%	59.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	66.1%	65.2%	34.8%	—	34.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	65.6%	51.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	55.1%	66.0%	16.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	75.5%	65.5%	59.5%	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	60.8%	66.9%	29.2%	40.3%	40.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	70.4%	0.0%	—	36.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	73%	68.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	68.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	67.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	42%	64.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	61.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 67°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗